For Events A And B Find Formulas For The Prob Tennis Betting – Tips For Exchange Betting on Tennis Matches

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Tennis Betting – Tips For Exchange Betting on Tennis Matches

By choosing tennis as your favorite sport to bet on, you have already given yourself an “edge” against those who bet or offer bets on other sports. To use this “edge” to consistently make money, however, you first need to understand two basic principles. Then apply the power of mathematics.

Principle number 1

Placing a tennis bet (or a bet on anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker is sheer folly. The expression “you can’t beat a bookie” is axiomatic; You can’t beat bookie with time. This is because the odds are always mathematically calculated in favor of the bettor. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookmaker’s mathematical “edge” against the punter is what he needs to make a profit so he can stay in business.

Computer technology has given rise to a new form of betting, called “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. With “Betting Exchange” there is no bookie to beat; In other words, there is no middleman. Each punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere in the internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that a player or team will win, and/or a “back” bet that a player or team will lose. Therefore, any punter can choose to act as a simple bettor and/or bookmaker.

With exchange betting the odds are not set by a third-party or intermediary; They are set by the punters themselves, who state what they are ready to bet (if they want to work as a simple bettor) or put offers of odds on which they are ready to bet (if they want. to work as a bookmaker).

As “back” bettors gradually reduce their requested odds and “lay” bettors gradually increase their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting web site matches all lay bets as soon as all back bets are matched. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then automatically credited with their winnings according to the results a few seconds after the event ends.

Obviously, the technology to provide such an “unbiased” betting service must be paid somehow. This payment is taken as a commission on the punter’s net winnings on the event (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on the positive difference between winning and losing in the same event.

This betting system is as close to a completely fair betting environment as it is possible to get.

There are very few betting exchanges in existence, however, perhaps because exchange betting software is more complex and therefore expensive. Exchange Betting is the largest betfair among web sites, around 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are Global Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is the most popular because it was the first to offer this “totally fair” betting environment, and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly.

Principle number 2

So, why does tennis betting give you an “edge” over betting on other sports? The answer, although simple, is often overlooked even by regular tennis bettors. And if you are someone who has never bet on tennis, you will almost certainly not realize the importance of tennis scoring system in betting.

Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis scoring system and probably any other sport you can think of.

In other sports and games, the trailing player or team must make up the points gap by winning one point for each point they lose in order to catch up with the leader. Only then do they begin to move forward. This fact seems obvious.

In tennis, however, the trailing player or team may lose the first set 6-0 (perhaps with a 24-point deficit). That team can then win the second set by the narrowest of margins, 7-6 in the tie-break, winning the set by very few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponent, a rare but possible occurrence!).

As soon as the trailing player or team wins the second set, both sides suddenly make even scores, even if one player or team actually won more points than the opponent.

This discrepancy often has a profound psychological impact on one or both sides, affecting the way they play for the next few minutes, and thus also affecting the bet odds requested and offered by punters on the match. However, this is another aspect of tennis betting that can be the subject of another article. This article deals with the mathematical side of tennis betting and how to win money with this knowledge.

How to win at tennis betting

Now that you are aware of these two basic principles, how can you use them to your advantage when you make tennis bets?

The key is not just to be a “backer” or “layer”, just to bet on the final outcome of the event. If you do that, you will lose over time, because there is always a small difference between the “behind” odds and the “lay” odds — there has to be, otherwise there is no incentive for anyone to offer odds and there. There will be no conditions. Add that to the commission you pay on your net winnings, and the “edge” is mathematically against you (although it’s not as large as with traditional bookmakers).

The secret to winning in tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event. This is another aspect of betting that separates an exchange betting web site from a traditional bookie. At the betting exchange you can back or bet at any time during the event, until the very last second or the last point. This is called “in-play” betting.

Because in-play betting is allowed, the odds for each opposing side change as the event progresses, according to the likelihood (perceived by punters) that one side or the other will be the eventual winner. The trick is to place a back bet on one side at certain odds and then place a back bet on that side (or a back bet on the other side) at better odds as luck changes and the odds swing in your favor. If you can achieve this, you will win your bet overall, regardless of the outcome of the event – a true “win-win” scenario.

Why bet on tennis and not other sports?

In addition to principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is amenable to such “swing” betting, as the odds fluctuate after each point is played. So there are lots of little swings to one side and then to the other. This does not happen in soccer, for example, because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the advantage suddenly and massively to the scoring side.

Furthermore, a tennis match can only have one of two outcomes; There can be no draw or tie; And only one of two players or teams can win. In horse racing, for example, the winner may come from a large number of runners.

The more possible outcomes factor into the equation, the harder it is to win. (Despite this obvious argument, football and horse racing remain the two most popular sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, more and more punters discover the fact that it is easier to make money betting. tennis.)

“In-play” betting or “pre-event” betting?

Now that you’ve — it’s hoped — understood and absorbed the basics of exchange betting and the specifics of tennis scoring, it’s time to explain the details of how you can win at tennis betting.

It used to be said that the secret to winning in tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event, placing bets at different times during the event as luck changes and the odds change. on your side. This can be done with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.

One method used in in-play betting is called “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming small profits by backing or laying at just the right time as the odds shift slightly in your favor, perhaps when a player scores two or three points in a row, and repeating the process over and over. The biggest drawback of scalping is that it is very time consuming and full of mental and physical stress. Not only do you have to pay full attention to what is happening during the match through live video transmission, but you also have to catch the exact moments to bet, which, in fact, is made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange. Betting software between the time you place a bet and the time it is accepted.

We won’t elaborate on it here because, as mentioned earlier, this article is about winning with math, not by the sweat of your brow. The math side involves betting, not during the event, but before the event begins. That is, pre-event betting.

Math doesn’t lie!

There are some tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software programs, some of which are very complex. From the author’s (mathematician’s) research, they all require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by Better. This probability factor is usually the odds at which you want to trigger your “balancing” bet (“back” bet toward the “back” or “back” bet toward the opponent), giving you a “win-win.” “The previously mentioned scenario.

So, how do you determine the value of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is the crux of the whole matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.

Until now, it seems, this probability factor was determined by the sheer experience of some experienced professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error estimation by lesser mortals. No wonder so many punters don’t win or don’t win because they don’t know the exact price they need to optimize their bets!

Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, in order to maximize the chances of winning consistently. A search on the web for a tool to calculate this proved negative. So the author created one that not only covers all aspects of exchange betting but also features tennis scoring systems, and for want of a better name, call it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator. The probability factor is calculated to two decimal places, simply by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the author to consistently earn more than 10% profit from tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.

As a parallel test, the author placed a sufficient number of “gut feeling” bets to establish a trend. This resulted in a loss of 10% of working capital (or “bank”).

Other tests were done using the Abacus Exchange betting calculator by betting on smaller games such as American football, snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too big). The results here only include commissions paid on winnings; Therefore, it is not worthwhile.

So, the particular mathematical formula or algorithm discussed here (which is quite complicated) seems to work well only with the unique scoring system of tennis.


As a scientist, the author believes that it is more likely to win in sports betting consistently over time only when the following factors are present:

1. An exchange betting web site is used, not a traditional betting web site. (Beware of the many sites that appear in search engine results for “exchange betting” and pretend to offer exchange betting! Make sure their software system enables you to back any odds you want against other punters and not against the house. If If in doubt, check that their website looks the same as the one on Betfair.)


2. The sport is tennis, because of its unique scoring system.


3(a) You learn and become experienced about in-play betting and are prepared to spend almost all your time glued to the computer screen following each game, sometimes more than one simultaneously.


3(b) You use software that tells you the exact odds to request and offer and bets to place in pre-event betting within minutes, thus allowing you to go about your normal life.

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