Find The Z Value When You Have Given Probability Formular Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – No Value No Bet

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Football (Soccer) Betting Tip – No Value No Bet

Price hunting is universal. This applies to both life and business. And this should also apply to football betting. Many punters fail to understand the importance of value betting. This is one of the most important yet most misunderstood concepts in football betting. Price is the real key to making a profit in the long run.

what is the price

Generally, value is found when you can get the item for less than it actually costs. The following illustration will explain this clearly.

You are an antique enthusiast and you are browsing around an antique store. You see a nice old vase on offer for $100. You know you can resell the vase for at least $120. This means that buying a vase is worth it. The key here is yours the knowledge That vase is actually worth $120.

However, buying a vase is with the intention of selling it without knowledge However much you can sell the vase for, then it is not a wise purchase and it is not a value purchase.

The same principle applies to football betting. In sports, the true value of the outcome of a game is expressed by the probability of that outcome occurring. If you can get a price that is high Than indicated by probability, then you find value.

So, the prices (or odds) offered by bookmakers are related to the probability of that outcome occurring. Now, how do we determine if the odds are worth it?

Odds (or ODDS)

Fair prices (or odds) are set if the outcome is expected to be a 50/50 position.

Take the example of flipping a coin. Since the coin has two sides, the probability of getting heads and tails is 50%. The formula for calculating the odds in such a 50/50 position is 100 / 50 = 2. Hence, odds of 2 are called FAIR ODDS.

So, if we are betting on a coin-toss, when the price offered is less than 2, then it has no value because we will definitely lose. However, if the value is greater than 2, say 2.10, it means the probability of winning is 5% higher (2.10/2.00). This is the price.

How to calculate if there is value in BET

Before we know how to find value, we must first understand probability and how to calculate value.

Probability calculation

The formula is:

Probability = 1 / 0dds

So, if the event is offered at 2.50, then its odds are

1 / 2.5 = 40% chance of happening According to the bookmaker.

If you estimate that the ‘true’ chance is greater than 40%, then you have found value.

Price calculation

The formula is:

Odds x percent / 100 > 1.0 (figure must be greater than 1.0 to be a value)

In the example above, if you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the value would be calculated as:

2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This value is greater than 1.0)

How to find the price

The keys to value punting are:

* How accurately you can predict the winning percentage of the result.

* Getting the best odds for that event.

Calculating the chances of winning is not an easy task. Finding value is 100% subjective. One may assume odds of 1.20 but another may disagree. Some punters feel that for odds of 1.20, the probability of the event must be at least 83% because they need to win five out of five such 1.20 events to be profitable.

So, finding price barriers is very individualistic. Sometimes, odds of 1.50 represent value. Sometimes, even 15.00 isn’t worth a shot.

After researching the general selection criteria, shortlist your betting goals. Then create your own predictions on home win, draw or away win percentages. No strategy is set in stone. You should try different methods and with time, you will realize that some factors will influence the results more than others.

Time, experience and practice are necessary to ‘perfect’ your method.

conclusion

If one of your value bets loses, it does not mean that the bet has no value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets will win the bet. The deciding factor is finding value in your choice. Of course, the higher the number of value bets, the higher the profit you can get.

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