Find The Z Value When You Have Given Probability Formular A Quick Horse Racing System For Place and Show Bets

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A Quick Horse Racing System For Place and Show Bets

Years ago Dr. Zed (Dr. William Zimba) a math expert, showed that profits can be made by comparing horse odds, and consequently the probabilities of winning, placing or showing in its actual position and showing the payoff. For example, if the horse’s money was equal, using statistics, Dr. Z could predict how likely a horse was to win, place or show. If the horse was at 8-5 and he knew it was likely to show 80% of the time and the show ticket would pay $3 it was a profitable bet.

Betting on a horse that pays $3 to show and winning 8 out of ten bets returns $24 for every $20 for a profit of 20%. His methods are still used today, although he published them in his book which was a huge success. You can still look at the tot and do the math if you want, but there are easier ways to spot potentially good bets and show pools.

Naturally, if you take the time to learn and apply the formulas, you will be rewarded accordingly, but if you want an easy and fun way to take some good bets at the horse track, here’s what to look for.

A good place and show bet usually occurs when one horse is considered significantly better than the rest of the field and another horse is considered better than the rest of the field but not as good as the top horse. A horse with a big advantage in speed or class will usually be a big favorite, often going for less than money.

The odds look like this in a five-horse field…

3-5

4-1

9-2

5-1

12-1

In most cases this does not provide a good position to show the place or bet. Place and show money will normally be distributed equally between runners based on their odds. But, if the board looks like this…

3-5

2-1

5-1

6-1

12-1

There is a possibility that the crowd is so confident that the second choice at 2-1 will place that they pour a ton of money into the place pool on this one horse and actually place the favorite a price bet. Look at the difference between the odds of the second pick at 2-1 and its next closest rival, the third pick at 5-1.

When I see obstacles like that, I usually see them pooling and pooling in place. Let’s say the pool looks like this…

Place pool totals $1,000

200

450

125

150

75

Obviously, while the second pick is less likely to place than the top horse, it has a lot of money to show for it. It often makes a desirable, good place bet and the same condition can be found in the show pool. It’s usually the second choice that gets the most money bet on it but once in a while, one of the other horses, which is often in the money but rarely wins, takes a bigger share of the pool.

There is no guarantee that this position will be profitable in the long run and to be more precise it will pay to do the math, for short-term bets, it gives at least some edge to the horse player looking for value in the pool. .

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