Find Closed Formulas For The Components Of The Dynamical System Horse Racing Handicapping Using Dynamic and Static Factors

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Horse Racing Handicapping Using Dynamic and Static Factors

A number of factors can be useful when evaluating horses to determine their chances of winning. Those factors all seem relevant while falling into two categories. Some factors are dynamic while others are static. Dynamic factors are those that change and interact as the race progresses. Speed ​​matching in running is an example of dynamics. The speed set by the front runners determines how the other horses must stay in the race and have a chance to win.

Speed ​​is perhaps the most dynamic of all parts of the race. Each horse interacts with the other horse or horses and the mood and fitness as well as the interaction of the rider create a very fluid and unpredictable situation that the handicapper must deal with. We read the racing form and try to picture how the race will play out. Taking into account speed and speed figures we try to predict the actual speed of the race on an equivalent basis. That is equal to a constant number. It is already set.

Other stable figures are established by other horses running the same type of race. Par times, race models, breeding statistics all help us set the upper limit for what we expect from runners. We work within parameters to estimate speed, but until that race has been run and we know how each horse breaks out of the gate and stays in the race, we don’t know how those dynamic figures will work.

Sometimes the races seem incredibly slow and fast as expected, perhaps a conflict between two or more runners never develops. Even racing styles, a factor that seems constant, can suddenly change when a horse that normally runs from far back in the early stages of a race is sent forward to compete with the early speedsters. I consider racing style to be a dynamic factor even though I rely on it to paint a race scenario. Because I rely on it, though, I can get burned and have on more than one occasion.

Before you hit your next set of runs, think about hose two terms, static and dynamic. How heavily you rely on dynamics will influence the number of times you burn or fail to set the right price on a horse if you look for value in your wagers. I’m not saying static factors can’t disappoint, but they’re more likely to be a true measure of race because they’re already set.

Whether or not horses measure up to that factor is another story, entirely.

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