Excel Formula For Specific Month And Year Day Of Week Does Weather Have an Impact on Fantasy Football?

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Does Weather Have an Impact on Fantasy Football?

It’s getting to be that time of year where the weather can affect real-life NFL games. As a fantasy football manager this is a concept that you simply cannot ignore. Yes, I’m going on the record and saying this. Checking weather reports is a must as a factor in the process of setting your fantasy football lineup! This article will explore the impact of weather on fantasy football output.

It is important to realize that there are different categories of weather, each requiring its own discussion. This article will focus on rain, snow, extreme cold and wind. For the purposes of this article, precipitation is defined as creating conditions that affect area and strength, so light rainwater is not counted. Likewise for snow there must be significant accumulation on the field which affects the feet of the players. Extreme cold is defined as temperatures near zero. Finally, we’ll consider defining wind conditions as more than just a light breeze, we’re talking about those chilly Sundays that have an impact on a quarterback’s ability to throw the ball.

Our first instinct is to consider any bad weather conditions to be negative in terms of fantasy football output, but that’s not all. Rain and snow actually seem to have a more negative effect on defense than offense. A look back at Week 16 of the 2008 season saw bad weather games in Buffalo, Chicago and Cincinnati. Those three games produced five 100 yard rushers. Note that all of these performances came from the running back position, although quarterbacks and wide receivers can excel in windy/snowy conditions. While quarterbacks may not be able to catch the ball as well, receivers have a huge advantage on slick surfaces. Defenses with poor field conditions are at a disadvantage because it is difficult to cut and maintain coverage.

While snow and rain are indeed conducive to crime, wind is another story. On those days when the wind greatly affects quarterbacks and wide receivers. Everyone remembers the 2007 season when Tom Brady and company were rolling all over until Mother Nature met them in Week 15. The only thing that could stop the Patriots offense that year was the wind. If you have a quarterback or wide receiver on your team to play in extreme winds I suggest you find an option.

Finally, there is the cold weather. Some warm-weather teams are certainly worried about extreme cold teams, such as the Green Bay Packers, having a big home field advantage late in the season. Cold weather also affects kickers who lose distance on kicks because the air pressure on the ball is affected. We found an analysis that investigated the effects of extreme cold within a data set from 1998 showing that the home team won every extreme cold game. That’s right, undefeated at home in the cold! The take away is that teams not used to extreme cold will see a negative impact on production.

In short, the weather is something to consider when setting your fantasy football lineup in later months. The snow/rain seems to support the offense, especially the running game. Stay away from defenses set to play in rain and snow. Wind is another story as it can completely shut down the passing game. Extreme cold will affect kickers and away teams unused to those conditions. So remember, take a quick look at the weather before you set your lineup as it can give you the edge that can determine the difference between a win and a loss on an NFL Sunday.

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