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MLB Betting Systems and Strategies Analysis – MLB Tips and Strategies to Win More
Is there a way to win more on MLB betting? Is it possible to make a living with sports betting? Yes there are. There are many ways to get more wins and eliminate unnecessary losing streaks. Before learning these specific techniques and MLB betting strategies, the first thing you need to learn is to avoid making mistakes that shouldn’t be made.
One of the deadliest mistakes MLB baseball bettors often make is betting on favorites. Well, there is nothing wrong with betting on favourites, given that you are a professional bettor who really understands the game and puts a lot of effort into the statistics before betting.
According to statistics over the past 10 years, favorites have lost an average of about 90 units per season. Does it mean blind betting underdogs will win you money? Of course not. If you bet straight up the underdogs you would lose an average of about 22 units per season. Both were overall losers but obviously, the underdogs lost less in MLB betting.
So what does this indicate?
Common people love to bet on favorites, be it baseball, basketball or any other sports betting. It is easy to know that the favorite team should win and has a high probability of winning but you have to compare those chances with the money line. Favorites have about a 58% chance of winning but they can still lose money in the long run. One tip I often use is to pick small favorites that can win and find decent underdog values when you make baseball bets.
Another downside to picking a favorite is that if you lose a big favorite which, of course, always happens – the big favorite has the pressure of winning three in a row to negate your loss. In reality, big favorites go down more often than you think. You can win more with them with less odds. But if you lose a few series with them, you will have a very hard time winning your money back.
So how do you find winning underdogs?
When you’re not sure who to bet on, bet on the home underdogs. In baseball it is always best to consider the home underdog if they are playing a divisional rival. Many division games are tough and home dogs offer value in MLB betting. Another place to look in MLB betting is on underdogs when they get hot. If they are just hitting the ball well and still have a dog then they have some value. You can also look at specific lefty/righty matchups which teams do well and are still the dogs in MLB betting.
Apart from betting on favourites, another mistake bettors often make is betting on parlays. Parlay offers attractive great odds, right? If you think betting parlays are a smart choice, the sportsbooks that offer them are laughing at you behind their desks. Obviously, betting parlay is a much more dangerous activity than any other type of betting, especially when you are not good at betting on single bets. My advice is, master your single bets, make them consistently profitable only consider playing in parlays.
Avoiding these above mistakes can help you rack up more wins and eliminate some unnecessary losses altogether. However, you must know that simply avoiding these mistakes is not enough. To win consistently in MLB, you need to know some unique techniques that only apply to MLB betting and finally follow winning strategies, systems or picks with commitment and discipline.
Here is one of the simplest MLB betting tips. Have you ever heard of the ‘Action Pitcher’ and ‘Listed Pitcher’ option in MLB betting?
If you choose the ‘Action Pitcher’ option, it simply means that your bet will stand even if the starting pitcher changes. The ‘listed pitcher’ option does the opposite. Your bet will only stand if the pitcher listed at the time of the bet starts the game. If there is a change in starting pitchers, your bet is void. This simple technique isn’t a huge tip but it can actually help you eliminate some losses on each of your bets.
Another tip is about betting on the run line. Run line betting can be delicious, but it’s not a piece of cake.
Sometimes this game can seem all too easy, isn’t it? You get to see a perennial powerhouse go up against their ace Bad News Bears and their starting pitcher, Adam Lambert. Well you are no dummy! Instead of taking a big gamble, you make sure the favorite team won’t win by two or more runs, and play the run line to increase your winnings. If only it were always this simple.
Experts say, however, that this may not be the best strategy when playing Runline. Major League Baseball has a surprisingly high volume of one-run games. As of this writing, even the top teams in the league have played in a high percentage of one-run games.
Below you can see the winning records of the 13 MLB teams, along with the percentage of one-run victories that involved them. Of course they weren’t suitable for each of them, but it can still give you a good idea of how. Many times RL can beat you, even if the team wins the actual game.
* Dodgers 35% * Mets 33% * Angels 32% * Rangers 31% * Brewers 28% * Tigers 27% * Yankees 27% * Blue Jays 26% * Red Sox 26% * Cardinals 23% * Rays 23% * Phillies 22% * Red 22% * Veteran 18%
I don’t know what’s more shocking – how high those numbers are, or the fact that the Giants have a winning record! But as you can see, even your powerhouse teams only win by more than two runs every three times.
Another statistic that will make you think twice before pulling that run line trigger is total team scoring. If you compare to the most anemic teams, there is only a difference of two runs per game put on the scoreboard (NYY 5.70, Sea 3.73). This means that everyone in between is pretty darn average within each other. All this makes me wonder if it would be wise to just play on the other side of the run line.
Of course you can always play RL the other way around by playing the underdog who is now getting a run and a half to work with. This can be smart at times, but will turn your +125 game into a -140 team real quick. Most players are greedy (like me) and enjoy taking more shots at the big hit. But based on my experience, playing a team that gets runs may not be as sexy as a date, but will usually be put out more often.
If you can follow these tips above and find out more on the internet or forums, basically you can get a closer overview of how bettors usually place bets and how to find leaks to reduce your chances of losing and increase your chances of winning. It’s all about probability after all.
The last thing you need is to follow one or a few winning systems with good transparent winning records.
Many bettors do not believe that there are MLB strategies and systems that work magic.
The fact is, following a good MLB betting system is the key to making $30k or a few times more per year on MLB betting. After the idea of betting strategies and systems people have spent many years of their lives going through various sports databases to find patterns and trends to help them come up with an effective betting formula. Some MLB systems are professional and advanced betting systems, while others prefer to pay a few hundred to thousands per year for a reputable handicapper service to save time doing research.
Keep in mind-to truly win consistently betting on baseball or any sport you need to invest in a handicapper or system that uses trends, angles, experience, and a proven system to produce winner after winner consistently. “
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